Speakers
Description
Dengue outbreak has become frequent in Ghana lately. Despite the influence
of climate change on dengue transmission, there is little information on how
Ghana's changing climate is driving these outbreaks. This study investigates
the role of climate change on the re-emergence of dengue outbreaks in Ghana
using a climate-driven basic reproduction number (R₀) model with temperature
and rainfall data to assess dengue transmission potential across Ghana's agro
climatic zones. We analyzed weather parameters including temperature data
from ERA-5 and rainfall data from CHIRPS spanning from 1994 to 2024. The
R₀ model incorporated biological parameters including biting rate, survival
probability, and extrinsic incubation period of the vector to evaluate
transmission suitability across Ghana's Forest, Coastal, Transition, Guinea
Savannah, and Sudan Savannah zones. Results revealed that the Transition,
Forest and Coastal zones showed suitable transmission potential (R₀ frequently
> 1), with the Forest Zone demonstrating the highest transmission potential,
followed by the Coastal Zone. The Sudan and Guinea savannah zones
consistently remained below the epidemic threshold. Transmission suitability
showed distinct seasonal patterns with peak transmission during wet seasons
and reduced transmission during dry seasons. The model effectively captures
spatial and seasonal transmission dynamics, demonstrating how Ghana's
changing climate creates favorable conditions for Aedes aegypti mosquito
breeding and dengue virus development. These findings provide critical
insights for targeting vector control interventions in high-risk southern zones
during peak transmission periods and establishing enhanced dengue
surveillance systems.
Keywords: Modeling, Climate Change, Dengue, Ghana.